Roundtable

The new presidential elections in Russia and the challenges of modernization

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On Friday and Saturday, October 21st and 22nd, 2011 the international round table "The New Presidential Elections in Russia and the Challenges of Modernization" was held in Forlì, in Garzanti Hall, its traditional venue at the Hotel della Città. Every year since 2005, within the framework of the Italian-Russian Forlì Days initiative, the Istituto per l'Europa Centro-Orientale e Balcanica has organized an international meeting as a regular appointment for prominent scholars and experts to gather in Forlì and discuss topics of relevance for the relationship between the European Union and Russia. This year's meeting was devoted to the analysis of the possible outcomes of the 2012 presidential elections in Russia, with particular focus on various aspects of the modernization process as this is a key component of the political agenda of both presidential candidates.

The conference opened with a Welcome Address by both the City and university authorities, namely Gian Luca Bagnara, Councillor for Agro-food Policy of the Province of Forlì-Cesena; Patrick Leech, Forlì City Councillor for Culture and International Relations; Félix San Vicente Santiago, President of the Forlì Campus of the University of Bologna; Paolo Zurla, Dean of the School of Political Science "R. Ruffilli" in Forlì.

On Friday morning the first session of the conference was devoted to the modernization process mainly in relation to the political agenda and strategies carried out by both Putin and Medvedev in competing for the electoral run of 2012, as well as to Russian society's reaction to the strategies of the two candidates. Elena Shestopal (Moscow State University) opened the session by stressing that the concept of modernization is a key idea of Medvedev's agenda, but data shows that Putin has much more support in Russia, at least on a personal level. As both agendas have supporters, Ms Shestopal referred to psychological interpretations to help understand how the society will respond to the political agendas of the two candidates. Then Oxana Gaman-Golutvina (Moscow State University, Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs, President of the Russian Political Science Association) took the floor to outline the relationship between the modern Russian political process and tradition in Russian policy. She stressed that the key dichotomy is not the opposition of "modernization vs conservativism", but different approaches towards the modernization agenda. Also, since Russian business is highly oriented towards innovation, the key is large companies' attitude towards modernization since innovation implies huge investments. But modernization cannot be successful without education, Gaman-Golutvina said. Paolo Calzini (Johns Hopkins University) spoke on a topic only indirectly related to modernization, i.e. the phenomenon of regionalization with a focus on the area of the new neighborhood. Here, Russia and the EU represent alternative regional poles both cooperating and competing for influence: if Russia tries to consolidate its hegemony in the region, the EU maintains an important role as a normative power. Only in a long-term perspective can we envisage that the so-called new Eastern Europe will cease to be a source of instability and tensions. Nikolai Petro (University of Rhode Island) tried to explain the rise of traditional religious institutions in Russia parallel to the government's attempts to embrace modernization. In his opinion, the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian government are currently in a marriage of convenience: the church is given free reign to try to change social morals through public institutions (media, film, military, and education) , while the government has obtained the support of the church, "the largest and most authoritative social institution in contemporary Russia". According to Mr Petro, this distinct feature of Russian modernization is likely to continue.

Thus, the panel proceeded to the discussion and question and answer session with the audience, led by Chair Ilya Roytman (President of the Interregional Non-Governmental Organization for the Promotion of Cultural Cooperation with EU Countries) and discussants Denis Alekseev (International Foundation for the Unity of Orthodox Christian Nations) and Olga Kalinkina (The Interregional Non-Governmental Organization for the Promotion of Cultural Cooperation with EU Countries) . Finally, a very lively debate among all participants took place.

The afternoon session was opened by Marcello Garzaniti (President of AIS, University of Florence) who couldn't attend the morning session. Delivering a speech on the relationship between the EU and Russia from the point of view of university reform and cooperation, especially as far as the humanities are concerned, with reference to the Year of Italy-Russia 2011 Garzaniti highlighted that within the EU Italy has always been a privileged Russian partner as far as culture is concerned. Irina Esipova (Adviser to the Minister of Energy of Russia) stressed the need to modernize the education system in order to provide highly qualified personnel in all Russian economic sectors.

Then the speakers addressed several political and economic aspects that characterize the process of modernization in Russia. Sergey Sudakov (MGIMO-University) dealt with the topic of modernization related to security affairs. In his opinion, Russian national strategy for security will be built on a new system of legal support for the citizens and the mechanism of personified responsibility will be the basis for modern national security in Russia. Then Gian Paolo Caselli (University of Modena) took the floor to focus on the economic challenge posed by modernization. According to his analysis, the low growth rate of the world economy does not provide a good environment for the process of modernization of the Russian economy. Moreover, the structural problems of the Russian economy will make it difficult – although not impossible – to transform the Russian economic system into a modern and innovative one. Tomislava Penkova (ISPI) dealt with the links that exist between the process of modernization and Russian foreign policy. Her major thesis was that the Eastern vector of modernization will not represent a viable primary source of technological advancement for Russia and this will ensure that Russia's western orientation remains strong. Moreover, Russia's modernization should combine both its national identity and its resources and economic potential for advancement, Penkova said.

The panel discussion was initiated by Domenico Mario Nuti (University of Rome "La Sapienza") who dealt with the current crisis in the Euro-zone. Then the debate was continued by Dmitri Golovanov (Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation) and Elena Shestopal. A dynamic exchange of opinions ensued.

The Saturday session focused on the international dimension and the dynamics of Russia's external relationships. Daria Boklan spoke about the influence of globalization on social human rights in Russia. The high quantity of claims against Russia submitted to the European Court of Human Rights reflects the positive impact of globalization on the defense of social human rights in Russia as this means that people are using these means to defend their rights against the state. Then Robert Craig Nation (US Army War College) returned to the notion of security focusing on the Reset agenda, a very serious diplomatic initiative promoted by the Obama administration to reshape bilateral relations with Russia after the break that followed Russian intervention in Georgia. According to Nation, there is a need to reshape the nature of security, as the US-Russian relationship is still a fragile one. In his analysis of three theories of modernization, Vladimir Paniotto (National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy) tried to extrapolate the parameters of modernization. Comparing Russia and Ukraine on these points, on several accounts, Ukraine shows better results in terms of level of democratization. Albert Bininashvili (Columbia University) analyzed the geopolitical changes occurring in the Middle East due to the ongoing Arab spring and its effects on EU-Russian relations. He also stressed the very important geostrategic role that Turkey has been playing in the region. Then Dick Krickus (University of Mary Washington) took the floor to focus on the effects of the Afghanistan question on the Reset agenda. According to his analysis, the way the US and Russia will cooperate in Afghanistan will be the best measure of the Reset and the record is positive since both sides have good reasons to see a successful outcome in Afghanistan. Finally, an extra non-scheduled speech was delivered by Predrag Šimić (University of Belgrade) who dealt with another perspective in western-Russian relations, this time in the Balkans. He stressed that the West and Russia are not alone in the Balkans, as a new Ottomanism is growing with its center in Turkey.

The final discussion was opened by Gleb Cherkasov (Kommersant Newspaper) and Ilya Roytman; an active debate then ensued.

The pictures of the Round table can be viewed at our Picture Gallery.